Thursday, June 16, 2016

US stock market note 2

Invest on the company, not the stock.

So here we've come to a stage where all the statistics and technical facts explain nothing about how much trust should we endorse a company. There are highs and lows of a company, and even the best company has a life cycle. Nobody think Google or Apple or Amazon will be there forever, and for most people, the question why these companies are on the top of the pyramid of the value chain, has never pass their minds. 

'Why the fuck does that matter, Daniel ? They are there because they are Google, Amazon, and Apple. That's it.' 

That is a typical thought of most investor. They simply held a belief that these brand names themselves are the magic that make the stock price rise. They check the statistics, and do the analysis, and read some news, and say, 'Ok, I think the market shows we should buy/ sell/ hold.' , as if they are talking about the weather. Yes, they are, incredulously, treating a huge company of billions in market value, thousands of workers, and millions of customers, as a natural phenomena. They measure what is thought to be indicators- humidity, wind speed- using their cutting-edge technology - radar diagram - to forecast the weather in the stock market in the following 3 days. That's how ridiculous some professional traders that handles billions USD perceive stocks. They know nothing about how to run a company.

Enough ranting. The secret of withholding trust and belief in a good company, as if they are yours, is to observe how good are their employees. For tech companies whose product is the intellectual ideas, smart and skilled workers/managers are the very key to the destiny of the company. Only the best workers guarantee the success, others are secondary. Employees are the genes of a innovative companies. The best innovation is not how mush research budget they lay on the nest annual year, or how many research papers/ patents they published every year, but how they are able to innovate themselves. This always takes the best people to succeed, for they are not slackers in thinking, and practicing it. This gene is the seed of fire of a innovative company. However, a genuinely innovative company should be able to generate great technologies that challenge the state of the art.

There are some side indicators that 'might' be useful to infer if a company has the best employ, such as the salary, the welfare, and the most exciting atmosphere that you can find and evaluate objectively on Glassdoor or other job hunting websites. Many companies claims they possess them, but how do we get a more concrete measure of employee quality, which is a combinatory measure of skill, creativity, passion, teamwork, and entrepreneurship? Difficult, isn't it ?

I henceforth put down my final rule of employee investment: how much the company invests and trusts its employee determines the resistibility and perseverance when the company faces negativities from the market forecasters. Good companies always empowers their employees.

Forecasters can earn money because they controls the media, and controls the capitals, so they can sway the stock price in a short time. While here we are talking about the operation of a company, and how companies innovate and renovate itself continuously to avoid being outrun by the environment. We are talking about the mechanism that modulates the weather.

The difference between us, and them is analogous to the difference between geoscientists and weather forecasters. We are talking about the climate, while they are talking about weather. No matter how weather changes, climate prevails in the long run. If global warming is true, then we will see tropical habitat becomes inhabitable, while Antarctic regions start to thrive eventually. This rule of investment is superior to the weather forecast investment, since we buy in very early in very low price, years before weather forecasters start noticing the trend on their radar technologies, and making waves for them.

As for when to sell ?  I would say never, or any time. You can sell it any time since your return of investment is around 10 to 100 times. You can keep it as long as the trend persists, those who goes with the trend will keep rampage the market, just like a hurricane on the tropical pacific ocean. 

US stock market note 1

Some observations of United States stock market in the last month.

1.  Its enough to transact once a month. Transaction fee is so high that it doesn't make sense to do transaction more than once per week. The fluctuation between the period are just investing emotions and speculations. One month is already the shortest duration to draw conclusion and make prediction in the next month.   (just an empirical rule, can be falsify, especially due to technological reason, such as AI trader.)

1. You must make a transection once a month. It is not recommended just leave them their.  You should either sale those bad and bid in those good, and update your information library. Otherwise you will loose touch to the market. This is the basic of basic, just in case you are very r

2. Most traders also make transaction once a week for the same reason. It doesn't matter if you will hence miss the critical time point, since you shall profit from your long term prediction of the company, not from other trader's decision. (The huge fall or rise should have a very sane base, such as company actions or fiscal report, which should have been learned by you earlier if you are not lazy and stupid. The unpredictable rise and fall, are therefore, unpredictable to rational traders. Unpredictable unpredictables are what a good trader should avoid. What traders do is to predict unpredictables.) This kind of rise and fall are too short to capture, and again, too high the transaction fee to make it profitable.

3. Market rise slow like climbing mountains, and plunge fast like jumping from cliffs. It stems from human psychology. It is the nature of human beings to evade risks. Exploiting this is the only reason we are more probable to earn money than other 'instinct traders' who doesn't aware how emotion affects human decisions.  Practically speaking, we buy when people sell, we sale when people buy. How do you know when to buy if the stock price is falling. How do you know it is the time the stock will stop falling, and is about to rise ? 1. deceleration of the falling speed. 2. When the fear comes from the bottom of your heart, buy it. Your nature-born emotion is the best anti-indicator in stock market. It is the primary pitfall that most trader fall into.

4. Evaluate the objectives not by P/E (it is a fossil), but DIVIDEND AND EPS, the most direct number telling you how much you should expect to gain after a year. ROE decides the price of the stock. Second the growth of revenue by year. This also decides the price, but only partially. Third, the demand of the target market of the company. This decides the long term growth of the company. For example, Internet infrastructures such as cables and servers are in high demands, whilst energy production and downstream refinement, distribute and retail markets are shrinking. But there are nuances which require extensive study of the markets. 

5. Don't buy what experts or newspaper recommend you (those are almost always bullshit). Don't take action simply because of some information. Action follows your judgement. Always form judgement, and that's why you will have a better chance to profit if you start to write a blog about your judgements. You can later revisit your judgement and adjust is according to reality. 

However, do use public information to confirm/refute your portfolio selections by using their logic to challenging your logics. Besides, you can make a compare group to evaluate whether your portfolio performance is better than so called 'experts'.

6.  S&P500 is a very good benchmark to test your readiness. If your portfolio cannot outperform PURE500, you should just buy PURE500. Otherwise you are just wasting your money. 

7. Never buy any kind of trust, because those traders earn managing fees regardless their performance. They never take your money as seriously as you do. Second, You will feel disgruntled wether you earn money or lose money anyways, and you will always think you are better than them (which could be very likely true.) They Can make one VERY bad decision and ruined the whole years hard work and make you think are they idiots or not ? (rhetorical question here.)

8. Here are some observation of the market demands : First, uprising consumer market in China is huge and underdeveloped. China is a close market that protects local companies. Therefore, Chinese companies targeting consumers are likely to boom multiple times. Yirendai,  a online micro loan company in China. Its price has soared like rocket after POA. Second, the infrastructure of Internet are thriving due to the strong demand. Global Energy demand is shrinking, and has a VERY BAD prospect in the long run. US Domestic Energy companies are also suffering. (Warning, no liability of any consequence of any investments incurred.) This observation is subjective, which personal bias and preference, which breath in some fresh air to this hideous but inescapable chore.

9.  However, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even some industries are not that hyped, it doesn't mean they are not a good objective for conservative, stable, and liquid source of revenue. You just don't want to loose all your money in a financial tsunami. Balance your portfolio by all means.


Tuesday, August 7, 2012






長期(60 months):



經融泡沫、外交衝突、產業瓶頸: 負面

國家的和平、政治的穩定、好的國家重大政策: 正面

中期 ( 7~10 months):

貨幣+心理(短期因素)=趨勢。 正向貨幣因素終究會導致正向的心理因素。


短期(1 month)



金流因素: 履約壓力、還款壓力


一個投機者的告白 -安德烈.科斯托蘭尼







有錢的人,可以投機                  利用多餘的錢進行投機,投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍,

錢少的人,不可以投機                這裡所謂有錢。不在於他有多少財產,而在資本是否完整無


根本沒錢的人,必須投機            利用多餘的錢進行投機,投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍,
                                                但是最多只能賠100% 。既然生活本來是一無所有,投機是














Sunday, July 29, 2012











Friday, July 20, 2012


今天在 NVESTO 的實習請到面板達人來為我們講解面板產業。

面板業主要是在製造TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Displayer)。

TFT-LCD 是面板業毛利率比較高的產品,因為它需要比較複雜的製程,因此需要比較高的技術才能達到可以量產的良率。產業界有一種說法,如果LCD做不出來,就會去做太陽能板,因為製程較簡單,需要的資本較小。這也是為什麼中國大陸目前到處都是太陽能板廠的原因。


台灣在LED背光源的技術無法追上韓國(韓國在研究8.5代廠,台灣連三代廠都做不出來。),在顯示器上就比較耗電,厚度也較厚。另外,在顯示畫質上也無法做出APPLE獨家的Retina Displayer,因此目前完全無法接APPLE的單,單子全部流到日韓。Retina Displayer 的面板,一個cell直徑約78 micro meter,但是台灣只能作到150 micro meter,解析度不是市面上最好的話,價格就很差,幾乎沒有利潤。



  日本在災後努力搶單,三家最大的面板廠在政府扶植下成立JAPAN DISPLAY,互相技術支援,他們主攻高階高毛利率的市場,台灣未來接單雪上加霜。韓國雖然目前遙遙領先,但是並沒有放慢研發腳步,台灣與韓國的差距無法拉近,如果不能搶先認證,拿到單的價錢恐怕是六折,五折,完全沒錢賺還要賠錢。中國政府宣佈2013年國產面板佔有率要達到80%,因為中國是目前全世界面板需求量最大的國家。加上台灣的技術不上不下,中國有急起直追之勢,未來的市場在哪裡,不確定性很高。




面板業的技術在未來的生技產業(micro fluid)依然有其潛力,現在下定論還太早。


1. size doesn't matter

2. thickness dose matter
   厚度才是重要。 薄度加上觸控會是未來趨勢

3. patent matters
  蘋果用RETINA DISPLAYER以及其他專利綁死面板業的供貨。限定供應廠商不能接其他手機業者的單。HTC因此會大受波及。

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

User-centered Innovation is Dead?

這篇2010年的文章題目是 User-centered innovation is Dead 我不太認同。

User center innovation不是一個新的概念,至少對於Internet來說。

Internet 可以說本身就是一個user innovation. 當internet還只在幾個大學的研究機構間使用指令來溝通時,它簡直是一片荒土,幾十個 lead user 在這片荒土上耕種,使它漸漸茁壯。(這裡指的網路不是有形的硬體,而是能溝通人群的無形功能)

在 kevin kelly 的書 what technology wants 中的描述,他可以算是網路界的前輩(他宣稱他是全世界第一個透過網路被僱用的人)。他提到網路這個發明與其他innovation的差異:

I discovered something I had not noticed about technology’s before. In addition to technology’s ability to satisfy (and create) desires, and to occasionally save labor, it brought new opportunities.I saw online networks connect people with ideas, options, and other people they could not possibly have met otherwise. Online networks unleashed passions, compounded creativity, amplified generosity.At the very moment that pundits declared the writing was dead, millions began writing online mare than they ever had written before. Exactly when the experts declared people no longer care public affairs, millions began to gather together in large number online.

  網路不是一種歷史上重複性的發明,而是一種突破性的創新。這種創新不是一人一時的發明,而是所有user的共同貢獻。創造、發明、分享、無私本來就是網路文化的本質,它允許企業利用網路營利,但是不幸的是企業反過來控制人們自由使用網路的權力。他們利用網路可以規模化的特性,輕易的作到壟斷。讓我們誤以為user centered innovation 是企業利用網路的特性所提出的新概念。

   user-centered innovation 是企業企圖利用者使用現有產品的習慣,來瞭解市場需求。其想法是使用者最瞭解自己的需求。但是之前研究指出所謂具有商業產值的user innovation通常來自於一種特殊的user,lead user。他們改變現有產品以符合自己的需求的行為展現出旺盛的好奇心、精力以及才能。當企業刻意的想要利用這種user、或是將 lead user的發明轉變成的商品,常常失敗,因為企業無法有效的確保這些人的持續創新,以及創新的品質。另外,刻意研究使用者行為的計畫中,往往沒有找到真正有創造力的lead user,而是普通user,研究這些人的行為不見得能找到有巨大商業價值的創新。

  為了吸引lead user 為公司創新,企業可能會提供產品開發工具給user 使用,但是因為動機的不同,開發工具可能並不符合lead user的需要。公司要的是能夠賺錢的產品,可能忽略創作者的創作欲望、分享欲望,而導致開發工具乏人問津。企業開發出來的tool 因為種種法律保護,限制了lead user的發揮。而且開發出來的東西,通常必須不斷的更新才能滿足lead user對於創造的需求。 Lead user 是使用者裡面的少數,通常創造出來的東西不是為了市場需求,而是個人需求,對於lead user 的創造,企業該以什麼樣的角度去評價,這也是一個問題。
   有人說:consumers are horrible in telling you what they liker。有人說:Observeing user behaviour makes us understand their need。這兩種說法把user 假設成是單一性質的個體,但是user裡面事實上各種組成十分複雜,lead user 與 ordinary user 是最簡單的一種劃分。producer-centered innovation 與 user-centered innovation 的論戰就好像是專家論以及民主論的政體比較,多數人民對國家議題沒有深刻見解以及研究、但是如何得知專家的判斷的確是對人民最好?消費者與人民的類比或許不倫不類,但是我們知道單純的精英治國以及民粹主義都會有其的負面問題,因次多數國家採取一種比較折衷的方式。或許這能給我們一些啟示。  

  user-centered-innovation 不必然與 manufacturer-centered -innovation矛盾。蘋果迷期待別人為他們定義科技,發掘需求,而樂高公司以及電玩公司則讓玩家自己建造自己的模組。一群人喜歡精品,崇拜專家; 一群人習慣創造,以及自己動手。user-centered-innovation應該視產業特性、客戶族群、以及公司定位而使用,而非全面性宣告或是聽信 user-centered innovation is trend/dead。

 現在的網路族群多為年輕一代,即所謂的N世代。他們把YouTube, blog, Facebook視為生活中很重要的一部分。他們會自己上網看其他網友對事情的評價,並且對於網路上的流言有自己的檢驗之道。他們注重自己,也關心公共事物。他們喜歡把自己的影片上傳,和朋友分享最新動態。網路的互助文化並沒有因為許多私人網站的存在而斷絕。很多的論壇、或是wikipedia,部落格,仍然仰賴網友的無償付出。網路科技降低了user創新的門檻,集結了更多人的想法,也激發更多創意、愛心。在網路領域裡,我認為user-centered innovation is not dead,但是主要還是取決於你做的是什麼生意。


Democratizing Innovation 最早提出 user-centered innovation 概念的書

Can user-centered design help?