Thursday, June 16, 2016

US stock market note 2


Invest on the company, not the stock.

So here we've come to a stage where all the statistics and technical facts explain nothing about how much trust should we endorse a company. There are highs and lows of a company, and even the best company has a life cycle. Nobody think Google or Apple or Amazon will be there forever, and for most people, the question why these companies are on the top of the pyramid of the value chain, has never pass their minds. 

'Why the fuck does that matter, Daniel ? They are there because they are Google, Amazon, and Apple. That's it.' 

That is a typical thought of most investor. They simply held a belief that these brand names themselves are the magic that make the stock price rise. They check the statistics, and do the analysis, and read some news, and say, 'Ok, I think the market shows we should buy/ sell/ hold.' , as if they are talking about the weather. Yes, they are, incredulously, treating a huge company of billions in market value, thousands of workers, and millions of customers, as a natural phenomena. They measure what is thought to be indicators- humidity, wind speed- using their cutting-edge technology - radar diagram - to forecast the weather in the stock market in the following 3 days. That's how ridiculous some professional traders that handles billions USD perceive stocks. They know nothing about how to run a company.

Enough ranting. The secret of withholding trust and belief in a good company, as if they are yours, is to observe how good are their employees. For tech companies whose product is the intellectual ideas, smart and skilled workers/managers are the very key to the destiny of the company. Only the best workers guarantee the success, others are secondary. Employees are the genes of a innovative companies. The best innovation is not how mush research budget they lay on the nest annual year, or how many research papers/ patents they published every year, but how they are able to innovate themselves. This always takes the best people to succeed, for they are not slackers in thinking, and practicing it. This gene is the seed of fire of a innovative company. However, a genuinely innovative company should be able to generate great technologies that challenge the state of the art.

There are some side indicators that 'might' be useful to infer if a company has the best employ, such as the salary, the welfare, and the most exciting atmosphere that you can find and evaluate objectively on Glassdoor or other job hunting websites. Many companies claims they possess them, but how do we get a more concrete measure of employee quality, which is a combinatory measure of skill, creativity, passion, teamwork, and entrepreneurship? Difficult, isn't it ?

I henceforth put down my final rule of employee investment: how much the company invests and trusts its employee determines the resistibility and perseverance when the company faces negativities from the market forecasters. Good companies always empowers their employees.

Forecasters can earn money because they controls the media, and controls the capitals, so they can sway the stock price in a short time. While here we are talking about the operation of a company, and how companies innovate and renovate itself continuously to avoid being outrun by the environment. We are talking about the mechanism that modulates the weather.

The difference between us, and them is analogous to the difference between geoscientists and weather forecasters. We are talking about the climate, while they are talking about weather. No matter how weather changes, climate prevails in the long run. If global warming is true, then we will see tropical habitat becomes inhabitable, while Antarctic regions start to thrive eventually. This rule of investment is superior to the weather forecast investment, since we buy in very early in very low price, years before weather forecasters start noticing the trend on their radar technologies, and making waves for them.

As for when to sell ?  I would say never, or any time. You can sell it any time since your return of investment is around 10 to 100 times. You can keep it as long as the trend persists, those who goes with the trend will keep rampage the market, just like a hurricane on the tropical pacific ocean. 






US stock market note 1

Some observations of United States stock market in the last month.

1.  Its enough to transact once a month. Transaction fee is so high that it doesn't make sense to do transaction more than once per week. The fluctuation between the period are just investing emotions and speculations. One month is already the shortest duration to draw conclusion and make prediction in the next month.   (just an empirical rule, can be falsify, especially due to technological reason, such as AI trader.)

1. You must make a transection once a month. It is not recommended just leave them their.  You should either sale those bad and bid in those good, and update your information library. Otherwise you will loose touch to the market. This is the basic of basic, just in case you are very r

2. Most traders also make transaction once a week for the same reason. It doesn't matter if you will hence miss the critical time point, since you shall profit from your long term prediction of the company, not from other trader's decision. (The huge fall or rise should have a very sane base, such as company actions or fiscal report, which should have been learned by you earlier if you are not lazy and stupid. The unpredictable rise and fall, are therefore, unpredictable to rational traders. Unpredictable unpredictables are what a good trader should avoid. What traders do is to predict unpredictables.) This kind of rise and fall are too short to capture, and again, too high the transaction fee to make it profitable.

3. Market rise slow like climbing mountains, and plunge fast like jumping from cliffs. It stems from human psychology. It is the nature of human beings to evade risks. Exploiting this is the only reason we are more probable to earn money than other 'instinct traders' who doesn't aware how emotion affects human decisions.  Practically speaking, we buy when people sell, we sale when people buy. How do you know when to buy if the stock price is falling. How do you know it is the time the stock will stop falling, and is about to rise ? 1. deceleration of the falling speed. 2. When the fear comes from the bottom of your heart, buy it. Your nature-born emotion is the best anti-indicator in stock market. It is the primary pitfall that most trader fall into.

4. Evaluate the objectives not by P/E (it is a fossil), but DIVIDEND AND EPS, the most direct number telling you how much you should expect to gain after a year. ROE decides the price of the stock. Second the growth of revenue by year. This also decides the price, but only partially. Third, the demand of the target market of the company. This decides the long term growth of the company. For example, Internet infrastructures such as cables and servers are in high demands, whilst energy production and downstream refinement, distribute and retail markets are shrinking. But there are nuances which require extensive study of the markets. 

5. Don't buy what experts or newspaper recommend you (those are almost always bullshit). Don't take action simply because of some information. Action follows your judgement. Always form judgement, and that's why you will have a better chance to profit if you start to write a blog about your judgements. You can later revisit your judgement and adjust is according to reality. 

However, do use public information to confirm/refute your portfolio selections by using their logic to challenging your logics. Besides, you can make a compare group to evaluate whether your portfolio performance is better than so called 'experts'.

6.  S&P500 is a very good benchmark to test your readiness. If your portfolio cannot outperform PURE500, you should just buy PURE500. Otherwise you are just wasting your money. 


7. Never buy any kind of trust, because those traders earn managing fees regardless their performance. They never take your money as seriously as you do. Second, You will feel disgruntled wether you earn money or lose money anyways, and you will always think you are better than them (which could be very likely true.) They Can make one VERY bad decision and ruined the whole years hard work and make you think are they idiots or not ? (rhetorical question here.)

8. Here are some observation of the market demands : First, uprising consumer market in China is huge and underdeveloped. China is a close market that protects local companies. Therefore, Chinese companies targeting consumers are likely to boom multiple times. Yirendai,  a online micro loan company in China. Its price has soared like rocket after POA. Second, the infrastructure of Internet are thriving due to the strong demand. Global Energy demand is shrinking, and has a VERY BAD prospect in the long run. US Domestic Energy companies are also suffering. (Warning, no liability of any consequence of any investments incurred.) This observation is subjective, which personal bias and preference, which breath in some fresh air to this hideous but inescapable chore.

9.  However, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even some industries are not that hyped, it doesn't mean they are not a good objective for conservative, stable, and liquid source of revenue. You just don't want to loose all your money in a financial tsunami. Balance your portfolio by all means.





 

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

科斯托蘭尼的投資心得



股市的波動

股市的波動與其討論各種基本面的因素,還不如歸結到供需平衡。因為股市的邏輯不同於日常生活的邏輯。你永遠無法解釋的清楚為何股市走向與日常邏輯相反。我們不必注意短期的股市走向,那是玩家的世界。

影響股市的driver

不同的因素會在不同的時間影響股市。科斯托蘭尼以他在美國以及歐洲的投資經驗整理出一些觀察:

長期(60 months):

總體經濟、國際情勢、國內情勢、科技發展、環境資源等基本面因素,終將反應在市場上。記住要有耐心,2*2=5-1不要受一時的下跌以及回跌而錯賣。

對長期經濟發展的影響:

經融泡沫、外交衝突、產業瓶頸: 負面

國家的和平、政治的穩定、好的國家重大政策: 正面

中期 ( 7~10 months):



貨幣+心理(短期因素)=趨勢。 正向貨幣因素終究會導致正向的心理因素。

匯率、貨幣政策、債券、定存利率

短期(1 month)

投資人心理因素:自信、恐慌、樂觀、悲觀

                                供需決定短期走向,股票多還是傻子多。

金流因素: 履約壓力、還款壓力


心理因素受到股市表現的影響、又回頭影響股市,短期的股市走向無法預測。


一個投機者的告白 -安德烈.科斯托蘭尼


一個投機者的告白這本書講的是股市投資大師安得列科斯托蘭尼的投資經驗談。


作者生平

  柯斯托蘭尼(1906~1999)生長於一個匈牙利的猶太家庭,幼時父親送他到親戚家學習股市投資。在巴黎的證交所學習的這段期間,他養成獨特的金錢觀以及投機觀。(當然猶太人一向都是投機的能手)他依靠自己的判斷力,在二十多歲時便已經在大恐慌的一片恐懼中從股市中大賺。

  柯斯托蘭尼擅長利用自己推論的能力,進行與大眾預期相反的操作,而多次獲利百倍。無論是在經濟大恐慌、二戰結束破敗的德國、或是東西德合併、蘇聯解體等經濟危機中,他的視野總是比其他人更遠,視野也更為宏觀。  
  在二次大戰後,父母親家中資產受到戰火破壞殆盡,所幸科斯托蘭尼的投機本領使他的父母可以在瑞士安享晚年,而也使他比當時戰後的一般人過得更好。這件事情對於科斯托蘭尼的投機致富的道德觀有很大的影響。他以身為投機者為榮。

  

什麼人適合投機?


有錢的人,可以投機                  利用多餘的錢進行投機,投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍,
                                                但是最多只能賠100%

錢少的人,不可以投機                這裡所謂有錢。不在於他有多少財產,而在資本是否完整無

                                                 缺,有沒有負債。負債投機的結果一定是不好的,投機總是
                                                 有風險,融資一但被迫提前還款,生活將受影響。此外,付          
                                                 債會影響判斷以及決策自由。

根本沒錢的人,必須投機            利用多餘的錢進行投機,投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍,
                                                但是最多只能賠100% 。既然生活本來是一無所有,投機是
                                                最好的致富之道。然而每次的投機之前必須深思熟慮,想出  
                                                嚴密的作戰計畫



如何投機?


觀察


有遠見的投機家密切註意各種基本因素,如金融和貸款政策、利率、經濟擴充、國際局勢、貿易收支、經營報告等,不會受到次要的日常新聞影響。同時他也觀察生活周遭的變化趨勢。他制定周密的計劃和策略,根據每天發生的事件進行調整。總而言之,投機者有想法,不管正不正確,畢竟是個想法。這是投機家和證券玩家的基本差異。


不受金融有關消息、新聞影響判斷


投機者不去尋找訊息、而是發現訊息。重要的消息,通常是隱藏在字裏行間(生活周遭)的訊息。不要重視企業消息以及財經報告,所有你可以得到的消息其他人都知道了,如此一來,股市早已反應。就算是得到內線消息,也不見得可以獲利。跟著別人買進、賣出,而不自己思考的人只是賭徒,只會淪為莊家和大賭客的祭品。


想像力比知識更重要


我們的判斷既然是基於既成事實,基本的類推大家都會,而且很容易想到。只有透過豐富的想像力才能發覺其他人尚未發現的資訊,那才是我們可以賺錢的地方。

有耐心才能進入市場


"我把「投機中賺的錢,是痛苦錢。」當成座右銘,先有痛苦,然後才有金錢。開始時出現的總是別的東西,最後才如大家所想那樣。如果投機交易中的各個要素都有效,剩下的只是時間問題,但大多數投資者都缺乏對當中發生的狂風暴雨處之泰然的耐心和毅力,他們一看到指數下跌,便立刻驚慌失措,賣掉所有股票。"


"我為證券市場列了一個獨一無二的數學公式:2×2=5-1。我用這個公式表示,最終發生的事情都會應驗。二乘以二等於四,是最後結果。不過我們不是直接得到這個結果,而是繞了一圈。" 

運氣

股市極其複雜,沒有人可以真正知道將會發生什麼。這次的勝利不代表下次的勝利,我們要保持謙卑才能必面犯錯。檢視失敗的原因讓我們發現自己的盲點。無論勝利或是失敗,我們總會得到什麼,珍惜它,從中學習。








  



Sunday, July 29, 2012

理性投資


巴菲特的投資哲學




股票的價值就是公司的價值
    巴菲特是世界上投資股市最成功的人,而他的投資方法也很簡單:股票的價值就是公司的價值。當股價低於公司的實際價值時買進,高於實際價值時賣出,就能獲得穩定的報酬。這樣的投資方法聽起來理所當然,但是實際操作時人們的決策往往受自己的情感以及市場潮流左右。在台灣,成天盯盤、殺進殺出成為股市操作的主流,而因短線操作的興盛伴隨而來的各種分析方法也充斥市面。大部分的人並不瞭解,也不曾試圖瞭解這些方法背後的理論依據以及實際成效,他們採用各種技術分析以及投資方法往往是聽信權威或是一窩蜂趕潮流或是看到一兩個成功案例就輕易採信。

任何買賣必須有清楚的理由
   巴非特的投資法主張任何股票的買賣必須有清楚的理由,而這最終都歸結到公司的真正價值上面。因為股價不論如何波動,它的穩定態必然反應公司價值。從上一段的幾種投資人常有的不理性行為我們可以發現,缺乏自信以及貪婪是影響理性決策的最大因素。因此,有人說在買股票最重要的是個人的修為,貪心的人賺不到錢,傻子才賺得到錢。但是我認為更深層的問題是大眾平常就不依賴自己的理性判斷做決策,而沒有養成理性思考的習慣。如果可以理性思考,貪婪以及恐懼根本不會存在於我們的腦海中。

短線操作的壞處

   股價短期的走向主要是因為三大法人的進出而決定。而散戶追隨股價走勢而追高賣低。緊盯股價策略能賺到的錢的極大值永遠小於法人,因為法人總是買在最低點、賣在最高點。這樣的方法事倍功半。
    雖然巴菲特很成功,也受到投資人的級大尊重,但是大多數的投資者和機構投資者的實際做法卻和巴菲特的投資理念相反。法人擁有專業知識以及豐富的資訊,對於公司的價值遠比散戶清楚。然而法人的專業經理人卻不一定可以做出正確的決策。他們會受到
1.公司方針、規範的限制
2.受到投資人要求以主流的技術操作
3.他們受到經濟學理論侷限的也可使得他們沒辦法做出最好的決策

種種因素影響之下,很少投資機構能向巴菲特的波克夏控股公司一樣,堅守理性投資。而也沒有公司能像波克夏公司一樣在投資上面有如此傲人的報酬率。

理性分析方法

理性說起來簡單,但是做起來要怎麼做呢?想必大部分的人沒有受過嚴謹的邏輯訓練。以下四個步驟說明我們如何做出理性的決策。透過思考力的訓練,我們可以反思自己的決策合理與否,只要能夠合理的做出決策,我們也能夠使用巴菲特的價值投資法。

以下的方法不僅限於分析公司價值,也可以用在我們生活中其他事物上。









Friday, July 20, 2012

面板業的未來



今天在 NVESTO 的實習請到面板達人來為我們講解面板產業。

面板業主要是在製造TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Displayer)。

TFT-LCD 是面板業毛利率比較高的產品,因為它需要比較複雜的製程,因此需要比較高的技術才能達到可以量產的良率。產業界有一種說法,如果LCD做不出來,就會去做太陽能板,因為製程較簡單,需要的資本較小。這也是為什麼中國大陸目前到處都是太陽能板廠的原因。

目前台灣面板業十分悽慘,有幾個原因

1.台灣技術落後
台灣在LED背光源的技術無法追上韓國(韓國在研究8.5代廠,台灣連三代廠都做不出來。),在顯示器上就比較耗電,厚度也較厚。另外,在顯示畫質上也無法做出APPLE獨家的Retina Displayer,因此目前完全無法接APPLE的單,單子全部流到日韓。Retina Displayer 的面板,一個cell直徑約78 micro meter,但是台灣只能作到150 micro meter,解析度不是市面上最好的話,價格就很差,幾乎沒有利潤。

2.資本密集
  這個產業技術上的技術進步不像積體電路有莫爾定律使得技術不斷突破,維持利潤。主要靠得就是不斷的把廠蓋大,增加產能降低成本,以及蓋新一代廠,製作更大的顯示器。而面板廠的蓋廠成本又很貴,通常建新一代廠要花舊廠的兩倍以上,價格都是以百億為單位。同時,面板機台的折舊很快,每年光是折舊就有百億,導致面板廠賠錢也要做,因為不做賠更多。這樣一個資本密集的產業就是大者恆大。小的廠會先死,大的廠也沒有太多利潤。後來也會因為投入的資本太大,大到不能倒,成為國家問題。台灣目前友達加上奇美電的員工總數約十七萬人,萬一倒閉,受到影響的總人數保守估計也有五十萬人。這兩家公司倒閉的話,台灣失業率至少上升兩個百分點,政治人物無論如何也不能讓這兩家公司倒閉。面板業已經大到不能倒,這是一個政治問題。

3.面板業殺價生態
  面板業在幾家大廠的殺價競爭下,全世界前五大的面板廠SHARP、SAMSUNG、LG、友達、奇美都賠錢。之前SAMSUNG當污點證人,使得五大廠全部因為聯合壟斷價格而被罰總額超過三百億的鉅款。這樣的罰款拖慢了研發進度,對資本最小的台廠最不利,因為相對來講罰款的影響較大,而且問題在於台廠沒有認清事實,官司脫越久越不利,不認罪不但罰得多,商譽損失也大,早點認罪反而受創較小。資本雄厚、又被罰最少的SAMSUNG趁機超前。

4.近期的問題
  日本在災後努力搶單,三家最大的面板廠在政府扶植下成立JAPAN DISPLAY,互相技術支援,他們主攻高階高毛利率的市場,台灣未來接單雪上加霜。韓國雖然目前遙遙領先,但是並沒有放慢研發腳步,台灣與韓國的差距無法拉近,如果不能搶先認證,拿到單的價錢恐怕是六折,五折,完全沒錢賺還要賠錢。中國政府宣佈2013年國產面板佔有率要達到80%,因為中國是目前全世界面板需求量最大的國家。加上台灣的技術不上不下,中國有急起直追之勢,未來的市場在哪裡,不確定性很高。

台灣發展面板產業到底對不對?

台灣因為有許多的電子產業(通訊、電路等),各種顯示器現在到處充斥,未來也會如此,出於垂直整合的原因,還是需要面板業。

目前台灣的面板業有自己的技術、專利,加上產能還是世界前幾名,依然還有競爭力。不能因為幾季的賠錢就決定退出。儘管有許多不利消息,但是未來會怎樣還很難說。

面板業的技術在未來的生技產業(micro fluid)依然有其潛力,現在下定論還太早。

未來面板的趨勢:

1. size doesn't matter
    行動裝置興起,做大不是趨勢

2. thickness dose matter
   厚度才是重要。 薄度加上觸控會是未來趨勢

3. patent matters
  蘋果用RETINA DISPLAYER以及其他專利綁死面板業的供貨。限定供應廠商不能接其他手機業者的單。HTC因此會大受波及。











Wednesday, July 18, 2012

User-centered Innovation is Dead?


這篇2010年的文章題目是 User-centered innovation is Dead 我不太認同。


User center innovation不是一個新的概念,至少對於Internet來說。

Internet 可以說本身就是一個user innovation. 當internet還只在幾個大學的研究機構間使用指令來溝通時,它簡直是一片荒土,幾十個 lead user 在這片荒土上耕種,使它漸漸茁壯。(這裡指的網路不是有形的硬體,而是能溝通人群的無形功能)

在 kevin kelly 的書 what technology wants 中的描述,他可以算是網路界的前輩(他宣稱他是全世界第一個透過網路被僱用的人)。他提到網路這個發明與其他innovation的差異:

I discovered something I had not noticed about technology’s before. In addition to technology’s ability to satisfy (and create) desires, and to occasionally save labor, it brought new opportunities.I saw online networks connect people with ideas, options, and other people they could not possibly have met otherwise. Online networks unleashed passions, compounded creativity, amplified generosity.At the very moment that pundits declared the writing was dead, millions began writing online mare than they ever had written before. Exactly when the experts declared people no longer care public affairs, millions began to gather together in large number online.

  網路不是一種歷史上重複性的發明,而是一種突破性的創新。這種創新不是一人一時的發明,而是所有user的共同貢獻。創造、發明、分享、無私本來就是網路文化的本質,它允許企業利用網路營利,但是不幸的是企業反過來控制人們自由使用網路的權力。他們利用網路可以規模化的特性,輕易的作到壟斷。讓我們誤以為user centered innovation 是企業利用網路的特性所提出的新概念。

   user-centered innovation 是企業企圖利用者使用現有產品的習慣,來瞭解市場需求。其想法是使用者最瞭解自己的需求。但是之前研究指出所謂具有商業產值的user innovation通常來自於一種特殊的user,lead user。他們改變現有產品以符合自己的需求的行為展現出旺盛的好奇心、精力以及才能。當企業刻意的想要利用這種user、或是將 lead user的發明轉變成的商品,常常失敗,因為企業無法有效的確保這些人的持續創新,以及創新的品質。另外,刻意研究使用者行為的計畫中,往往沒有找到真正有創造力的lead user,而是普通user,研究這些人的行為不見得能找到有巨大商業價值的創新。

  為了吸引lead user 為公司創新,企業可能會提供產品開發工具給user 使用,但是因為動機的不同,開發工具可能並不符合lead user的需要。公司要的是能夠賺錢的產品,可能忽略創作者的創作欲望、分享欲望,而導致開發工具乏人問津。企業開發出來的tool 因為種種法律保護,限制了lead user的發揮。而且開發出來的東西,通常必須不斷的更新才能滿足lead user對於創造的需求。 Lead user 是使用者裡面的少數,通常創造出來的東西不是為了市場需求,而是個人需求,對於lead user 的創造,企業該以什麼樣的角度去評價,這也是一個問題。
  
   有人說:consumers are horrible in telling you what they liker。有人說:Observeing user behaviour makes us understand their need。這兩種說法把user 假設成是單一性質的個體,但是user裡面事實上各種組成十分複雜,lead user 與 ordinary user 是最簡單的一種劃分。producer-centered innovation 與 user-centered innovation 的論戰就好像是專家論以及民主論的政體比較,多數人民對國家議題沒有深刻見解以及研究、但是如何得知專家的判斷的確是對人民最好?消費者與人民的類比或許不倫不類,但是我們知道單純的精英治國以及民粹主義都會有其的負面問題,因次多數國家採取一種比較折衷的方式。或許這能給我們一些啟示。  

  user-centered-innovation 不必然與 manufacturer-centered -innovation矛盾。蘋果迷期待別人為他們定義科技,發掘需求,而樂高公司以及電玩公司則讓玩家自己建造自己的模組。一群人喜歡精品,崇拜專家; 一群人習慣創造,以及自己動手。user-centered-innovation應該視產業特性、客戶族群、以及公司定位而使用,而非全面性宣告或是聽信 user-centered innovation is trend/dead。

 現在的網路族群多為年輕一代,即所謂的N世代。他們把YouTube, blog, Facebook視為生活中很重要的一部分。他們會自己上網看其他網友對事情的評價,並且對於網路上的流言有自己的檢驗之道。他們注重自己,也關心公共事物。他們喜歡把自己的影片上傳,和朋友分享最新動態。網路的互助文化並沒有因為許多私人網站的存在而斷絕。很多的論壇、或是wikipedia,部落格,仍然仰賴網友的無償付出。網路科技降低了user創新的門檻,集結了更多人的想法,也激發更多創意、愛心。在網路領域裡,我認為user-centered innovation is not dead,但是主要還是取決於你做的是什麼生意。



閱讀:

Democratizing Innovation 最早提出 user-centered innovation 概念的書

Can user-centered design help?