Company Analysis: Light Speed

 Lightspeed POS, Inc. provides point-of-sale software for retailers and restaurants. It offers workflow analysis, training, configuration, networking and business services. The company was founded by Dax Dasilva on March 21, 2005 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

 

Competitors: Shopify, Square

Lightspeed does not get as much organic growth as Shopify does given its size. They just acquire acquire and keeping acquiring….dilute and acquiring

Company Analaysis: Z-Scaler

 ZScaler(ZS) is a cybersecurity company that focuses on zero-trust cloud security. The technology allows finer control of the enterprise customers to grant data access to employees depending on context and content. The context dependency enhances the data security since more and more cyber-attacks implants backdoor virus in employees or collaborators' devices.  

Along with the Covid-19 pandemics, the work-from-home trend exposed that the old cyber security measures can't to deal with the threat of loss/stolen/hacked remote devices.

 

 

High Growth  

The company is growing fast during the last TTM and YoY. The optimistic uptrend supports the above-market stock price performance. The P/S is higher than its competitors, but the 80/20 rule tell us winner keep winning.  The current valuation is based on 40% revenue YoY growth. For a software company, the revenue grow doesn't increase cost. The margin will keep increasing. The EPS estimator the next year is 103.77%

 

	2020 (07/31/20)	2019 (07/31/19)	2018 (07/31/18)	2017 (07/31/17)	2016 (07/31/16)
profit(M)	356	254	160	105	65
cost(M)	75	49	30	21	15
margin(%)	0.789	0.807	0.812	0.8	0.769

Valuation

Compare to other growth Stocks, SZ is expensive.

Customer Concentration

Federal Government

 

我的科技股四週波段分析檢驗

上一篇做了一個很簡單的線性外差。預測QQQ的波段低點

             |May 1| May14|May27|June11|
            Interval| 11D   | 13D    |15D     |

             |212$  | 217$   | 224$  |231$   |
          Change  | 5$       | 7$      |  9$     |   

不囉唆上圖

儘管股價在上兩週連飆 15塊，但是在今天接續昨天遭遇大賣，美股大跌％5到％6，全球股市全黑。具體原因不明。

比較May1st 到 June 11這波段 SPY, QQQ, MSFT 的表現。個股MSFT的泡沫特別volatile（最近一週max-min.) 雖然科技板塊相對抗跌，投資報酬率優於大盤SPY. QQQ 在這個波段如同預期表現優於長期績優股MSFT。（10% vs 7.5%） 

再市場氣象的鋒面前宜觀察短期局勢（Weeks），來預測晴雨。但是我們應該關心的事降雨機率而非晴天機率。因為我們最不想要的是淋濕，而不是錯過晴天。錯過晴天（損失預期報酬）比被淋濕（承受非預期損失）較不影響心情。美股SPY 像是加州，多晴天少降雨，QQQ像是LA，一年降雨天不僅極少，且規律容易預測。

氣候穩定時，應觀察長期趨勢(Month)，就LA天氣來講，選個股應該買資本額大（big cap sum (>50Billion)）的比較能預測。看陡峭率知道太陽曝曬下溫度升高的陡峭率（比熱）。因為多晴少陰，陡峭率大的公司報酬率大。

一年中LA 多晴少陰（2019 Jun - 2020Jun）。暴風雨十年一次，小雨季一年一次。只要不要被暴風雨擊中，都會賺錢。AMZN 比熱不如MSFT，MSFT比熱不如AAPL。AAPL 

美股筆記：market reopening. 美國未控制住疫情，經濟迫需開市。謹小慎微

個人生活

我上個月訂閱了美國的洛杉磯日報，以及紐約時報兩大報。
紐約時報為紐約第一大報，對於不看電視的我有助於了解民生民情以及熱點話題
洛杉磯時報為洛杉磯的當地大報。觀看體驗優於紐約時報，每天會寄信到信箱。
兩報對於財經專題不是相當注重 ，但是對於疫情以及國內問題報導的頗多。
剛開始還會一頁一頁看。但是看了一個月發現沒有太多驚喜，就看的快，看的少。
現在只看前幾版，後面就不看。
下個月如果沒每天看，果斷停訂。之前訂過economist其實不錯，可以考慮回訂。
 最近因為自肅（quarantine）我訂閱了兩報。最近一直報導新常態，我希望不要成為常態。不然都沒地方去還不如回台灣。

 疫情

這週加州宣佈開市，第二階段的餐廳，以及第三階段的髮廊都開了。終於可以剪剪兩個月沒剪的頭。

航空業復甦?

下下週六月九號要搭飛機， 阿拉斯加航空到聖荷西去住在凱家。我樂觀判斷那時候會安全的多。因次我今天也book了西南航空LUV以及阿拉斯加航空ALK的股票。現在航空業慘淡，股票觸底，只要不倒，跌無可跌,只能漲了。LUV , ALK, 主要是這兩家結構簡單，流動資產多，就算燒錢到年底也不會倒。


巨觀的貧富問題加深

其實美國航空業接受政府的bailout美國政府就不會讓他們倒 。但是納稅人沒有忘記2008金融海嘯的bailout 而且十年來活在 paycheck to paycheck的人一直增加，而super rich則越來越富。貧富差距在瘟疫後只會進ㄧ步拉大。美國價值美國夢的信譽加速滑落，沒有適當的政治處理，貧富對立，以及表面的民粹，藍紅對立，也會影響投資人的投資意願。建議美國政治界盡快對於兩大陳癰：醫療以及教育進行改革。這兩大支出在失業大曾的情況下會導致民眾看不起病加上付不出學貸。而所謂的貨幣QE或是個人中小企業紓困，在普羅大眾沒有消費能力的情況下收效不樂觀。

疫情下的科技趨勢

1.新常態：

work from home -> leave outside city -> less dine out, hang out. -> depreciates value of office real estate, shopping mall real estate in cities. -> cheaper rent
               
need less cars -> worsen cars demand -> cheaper cars -> new transportation culture.--> autopilot.
               
social distancing -> winter of sharing economy -> loneliness, more telecommunication, online gaming, online entertainment

traveling becomes more difficult since reduced means, but business travel could still be necessary. -> cheaper flight ticket, but bankruptcy of weaker smaller ones.

online education ->  reduced tuition and reduced teaching and learning hours  -> more free time with families thus increased need for at home entertainment.

online medication -> under developed area of business.

 未來的大公司
Square, Shopify, Amazon, Activation, Zoom, TicToc, Nintendo, Tesla, 


stock analysis技術分析

Low Ball Buying Technique.

My buying strategy is to buy low (sell high).

You can observe from the graph above that there are three main falls at May 1, May 14, and May27,which coincidentally fall on a line. It is clearly the section of the industry in on the rising phase after the plaque. By doing extrapolation of the low points we can set price to buy at any specific time point as long as the rising phase doesn't change because of some 'black swan' or ' monetary& financial polices'. In fact M&F policies are now adding fuel to the market so I expect I will only burn hotter in the next quarter.

The extrapolation is

             |May 1| May14|May27|June11|
            Interval| 11D   | 13D    |15D     |

             |212$  | 217$   | 224$  |231$   |
          Change  | 5$       | 7$      |  9$     |         
                

so the target low ball price at June 11 is 231$

Extrapolate in between for May28 is 224 + 9/15*1 = 224.6$
So I will put an order of 224.6$ limit buy offer on the market for May28.
That's how you can always buy at the lowest point on the market without reading the research report.

基本面 

In the fidelity API, you can choose the research report from the left hand side bar.

 from there, you can pick research reports from various agencies, and there is a normalized accuracy rating for each agency over the last 24 months on the industry sector StarMine Relative Accuracy. But I recommend to read most of them because they contains in depth information of the business, and you can learn how professional analyst evaluate the company's target stock price.

For example, if you want to learn more about an unfamiliar company, you can start with Zacks Investment Research -SHOP

So you can see there's basic verbal report that takes 3 minutes to read. On the left is the estimate and actual Earning per Share. The report goes on and it is highly recommended for all investors before buying any stock.

美股筆記：covid-19 病毒全國封鎖 逢低買進

美股在2/21 開始暴跌。因為美國政府終於意識到新冠病毒已經在國內蔓延，而多數人還不狀況內。疫情從郵輪爆發，但是社區感染是在華盛頓州開始。養老中心發生群聚感染，並且老人確診感染後死亡。該院醫護對於新冠病毒沒有危機意識，因為他們認為不過是另外一種流感病毒。新冠病毒的感染率遠高於流感，但是致死率遠低於2010年SARS。SARS當年重創亞洲，使得中日韓都有危機意識，因而得以防範未然。義大利，西班牙，長年公衛系統嚴重不足，此次疫情癱瘓醫院。雖然義國政府要求居家隔離，沒有想到無症狀帶原者卻把病毒在室內傳給家人。事實上，病毒在室內的濃度遠高於室外，因此大規模感染通常是大型室內集會，如夜店，地鐵，教室，教會，飛機，郵輪。一般而言病毒藉由飛沫以及接觸傳染。在高於八十歲老人的致死率高達兩成。Covid19不同於SARS，雖然致死率低，也比流感來得高，在沒有疫苗的情況下，沒有做社交隔離可能會造成大規模的中老年人死亡。

由於美國政府毫無準備，加上整體就業人口多為沒有社會保險的合約工，如共乘，外賣快遞，餐館服務生，以及大量三級產業時薪就業人口，封成導致美國大量的人失去收入。又由於美國人沒有儲蓄習慣，加上房租房貸，連帶導致大量人口申請社會救濟。美國財政紀律敗壞，量化寬鬆失靈，流動性流入社會救濟並不會刺激消費，只會造成更嚴重的通膨。但是銀行得「暫時」避免大量企業個人債務違約。不容置疑的是這次大疫暴露美國人民就業結構的問題，美國長期財政紀律的問題，以及資本主義過度仰賴非必須消費來刺激增長的問題。

股市泡沫破裂直到3/23才因為川普的兩兆美元補貼迫使流動性到股市避風。但是在實質就業問題沒獲得解決之前，整體經濟危機看不到亮光。川普必須盡快出台就業方案，同時財富分配問題會在危機過後成為下次大選的熱點。無論如何，川普的選情堪慮。拜登上台機會增加。美中貿易戰可能因為川普下台而不了了之。那受惠最多的恐怕是共產黨，因為川普落選將成為習進平繼續掌權的政治籌碼。拜登如果延續歐巴馬重返亞洲政策，而非川普美國優先政策，美國將繼續被中國製造業以及中國非自由市場綁架，而造成國家安全威脅。全球秩序在未來這幾個月可能將有大洗牌。歐盟分裂，以及美國明顯難以領導聯合國的局勢下，舊秩序無論如何無法維持。這次大疫可以說是歷史性時刻。

然而美國秩序的崩塌，將不會是突然的，而是一個緩降的過程，因為世界各國都同時面臨相同的經濟危機。中國可以利用國有化私人資產來繼續提昇國力，成為經濟霸權，但是用暴力掠奪民眾資產，干涉自由市場以及封鎖輿論這種半奴隸制導致的社會不穩定可能會導致中國財產無法轉化為消費，而是高儲蓄以及中產技術階級的向外流失。

未來一片愁雲慘霧。現金固然有流動性的優勢。20%資產配在股市，另外應該提高黃金比重到20%，剩下60%為現金。

買股：healthcare ETF 未來半年收益優於大盤指數。缺點是缺乏長期成長性（預期九月到賣點）
買股：MMM 口罩訂單，未來半年收益增加，相對抗跌。缺點是長期缺乏成長性。此外配息還算高（預期九月到賣點）  
買股: NEQZ 那斯達克ETF。科技業一向是美國經濟火車頭。成長性高。疫情時可以遠距工作，廣告收入電商收入可能因為隔離增加，疫情後反彈快速，基本上沒有受到太多生意衝擊。另外，平常這些股票超貴，此時不買更待何時。這波危機是五十年一遇的買點。大量優良資產低於實際價值。

未來半年看壞：

US stock market note 2

Invest on the company, not the stock.

So here we've come to a stage where all the statistics and technical facts explain nothing about how much trust should we endorse a company. There are highs and lows of a company, and even the best company has a life cycle. Nobody think Google or Apple or Amazon will be there forever, and for most people, the question why these companies are on the top of the pyramid of the value chain, has never pass their minds. 

'Why the fuck does that matter, Daniel ? They are there because they are Google, Amazon, and Apple. That's it.' 

That is a typical thought of most investor. They simply held a belief that these brand names themselves are the magic that make the stock price rise. They check the statistics, and do the analysis, and read some news, and say, 'Ok, I think the market shows we should buy/ sell/ hold.' , as if they are talking about the weather. Yes, they are, incredulously, treating a huge company of billions in market value, thousands of workers, and millions of customers, as a natural phenomena. They measure what is thought to be indicators- humidity, wind speed- using their cutting-edge technology - radar diagram - to forecast the weather in the stock market in the following 3 days. That's how ridiculous some professional traders that handles billions USD perceive stocks. They know nothing about how to run a company.

Enough ranting. The secret of withholding trust and belief in a good company, as if they are yours, is to observe how good are their employees. For tech companies whose product is the intellectual ideas, smart and skilled workers/managers are the very key to the destiny of the company. Only the best workers guarantee the success, others are secondary. Employees are the genes of a innovative companies. The best innovation is not how mush research budget they lay on the nest annual year, or how many research papers/ patents they published every year, but how they are able to innovate themselves. This always takes the best people to succeed, for they are not slackers in thinking, and practicing it. This gene is the seed of fire of a innovative company. However, a genuinely innovative company should be able to generate great technologies that challenge the state of the art.

There are some side indicators that 'might' be useful to infer if a company has the best employ, such as the salary, the welfare, and the most exciting atmosphere that you can find and evaluate objectively on Glassdoor or other job hunting websites. Many companies claims they possess them, but how do we get a more concrete measure of employee quality, which is a combinatory measure of skill, creativity, passion, teamwork, and entrepreneurship? Difficult, isn't it ?

I henceforth put down my final rule of employee investment: how much the company invests and trusts its employee determines the resistibility and perseverance when the company faces negativities from the market forecasters. Good companies always empowers their employees.

Forecasters can earn money because they controls the media, and controls the capitals, so they can sway the stock price in a short time. While here we are talking about the operation of a company, and how companies innovate and renovate itself continuously to avoid being outrun by the environment. We are talking about the mechanism that modulates the weather.

The difference between us, and them is analogous to the difference between geoscientists and weather forecasters. We are talking about the climate, while they are talking about weather. No matter how weather changes, climate prevails in the long run. If global warming is true, then we will see tropical habitat becomes inhabitable, while Antarctic regions start to thrive eventually. This rule of investment is superior to the weather forecast investment, since we buy in very early in very low price, years before weather forecasters start noticing the trend on their radar technologies, and making waves for them.

As for when to sell ?  I would say never, or any time. You can sell it any time since your return of investment is around 10 to 100 times. You can keep it as long as the trend persists, those who goes with the trend will keep rampage the market, just like a hurricane on the tropical pacific ocean. 

US stock market note 1

Some observations of United States stock market in the last month.

1.  Its enough to transact once a month. Transaction fee is so high that it doesn't make sense to do transaction more than once per week. The fluctuation between the period are just investing emotions and speculations. One month is already the shortest duration to draw conclusion and make prediction in the next month.   (just an empirical rule, can be falsify, especially due to technological reason, such as AI trader.)

1. You must make a transection once a month. It is not recommended just leave them their.  You should either sale those bad and bid in those good, and update your information library. Otherwise you will loose touch to the market. This is the basic of basic, just in case you are very r

2. Most traders also make transaction once a week for the same reason. It doesn't matter if you will hence miss the critical time point, since you shall profit from your long term prediction of the company, not from other trader's decision. (The huge fall or rise should have a very sane base, such as company actions or fiscal report, which should have been learned by you earlier if you are not lazy and stupid. The unpredictable rise and fall, are therefore, unpredictable to rational traders. Unpredictable unpredictables are what a good trader should avoid. What traders do is to predict unpredictables.) This kind of rise and fall are too short to capture, and again, too high the transaction fee to make it profitable.

3. Market rise slow like climbing mountains, and plunge fast like jumping from cliffs. It stems from human psychology. It is the nature of human beings to evade risks. Exploiting this is the only reason we are more probable to earn money than other 'instinct traders' who doesn't aware how emotion affects human decisions.  Practically speaking, we buy when people sell, we sale when people buy. How do you know when to buy if the stock price is falling. How do you know it is the time the stock will stop falling, and is about to rise ? 1. deceleration of the falling speed. 2. When the fear comes from the bottom of your heart, buy it. Your nature-born emotion is the best anti-indicator in stock market. It is the primary pitfall that most trader fall into.

4. Evaluate the objectives not by P/E (it is a fossil), but DIVIDEND AND EPS, the most direct number telling you how much you should expect to gain after a year. ROE decides the price of the stock. Second the growth of revenue by year. This also decides the price, but only partially. Third, the demand of the target market of the company. This decides the long term growth of the company. For example, Internet infrastructures such as cables and servers are in high demands, whilst energy production and downstream refinement, distribute and retail markets are shrinking. But there are nuances which require extensive study of the markets. 

5. Don't buy what experts or newspaper recommend you (those are almost always bullshit). Don't take action simply because of some information. Action follows your judgement. Always form judgement, and that's why you will have a better chance to profit if you start to write a blog about your judgements. You can later revisit your judgement and adjust is according to reality. 

However, do use public information to confirm/refute your portfolio selections by using their logic to challenging your logics. Besides, you can make a compare group to evaluate whether your portfolio performance is better than so called 'experts'.

6.  S&P500 is a very good benchmark to test your readiness. If your portfolio cannot outperform PURE500, you should just buy PURE500. Otherwise you are just wasting your money. 

7. Never buy any kind of trust, because those traders earn managing fees regardless their performance. They never take your money as seriously as you do. Second, You will feel disgruntled wether you earn money or lose money anyways, and you will always think you are better than them (which could be very likely true.) They Can make one VERY bad decision and ruined the whole years hard work and make you think are they idiots or not ? (rhetorical question here.)

8. Here are some observation of the market demands : First, uprising consumer market in China is huge and underdeveloped. China is a close market that protects local companies. Therefore, Chinese companies targeting consumers are likely to boom multiple times. Yirendai,  a online micro loan company in China. Its price has soared like rocket after POA. Second, the infrastructure of Internet are thriving due to the strong demand. Global Energy demand is shrinking, and has a VERY BAD prospect in the long run. US Domestic Energy companies are also suffering. (Warning, no liability of any consequence of any investments incurred.) This observation is subjective, which personal bias and preference, which breath in some fresh air to this hideous but inescapable chore.

9.  However, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even some industries are not that hyped, it doesn't mean they are not a good objective for conservative, stable, and liquid source of revenue. You just don't want to loose all your money in a financial tsunami. Balance your portfolio by all means.