美股筆記：market reopening. 美國未控制住疫情，經濟迫需開市。謹小慎微

個人生活

我上個月訂閱了美國的洛杉磯日報，以及紐約時報兩大報。
紐約時報為紐約第一大報，對於不看電視的我有助於了解民生民情以及熱點話題
洛杉磯時報為洛杉磯的當地大報。觀看體驗優於紐約時報，每天會寄信到信箱。
兩報對於財經專題不是相當注重 ，但是對於疫情以及國內問題報導的頗多。
剛開始還會一頁一頁看。但是看了一個月發現沒有太多驚喜，就看的快，看的少。
現在只看前幾版，後面就不看。
下個月如果沒每天看，果斷停訂。之前訂過economist其實不錯，可以考慮回訂。
 最近因為自肅（quarantine）我訂閱了兩報。最近一直報導新常態，我希望不要成為常態。不然都沒地方去還不如回台灣。

 疫情

這週加州宣佈開市，第二階段的餐廳，以及第三階段的髮廊都開了。終於可以剪剪兩個月沒剪的頭。

航空業復甦?

下下週六月九號要搭飛機， 阿拉斯加航空到聖荷西去住在凱家。我樂觀判斷那時候會安全的多。因次我今天也book了西南航空LUV以及阿拉斯加航空ALK的股票。現在航空業慘淡，股票觸底，只要不倒，跌無可跌,只能漲了。LUV , ALK, 主要是這兩家結構簡單，流動資產多，就算燒錢到年底也不會倒。


巨觀的貧富問題加深

其實美國航空業接受政府的bailout美國政府就不會讓他們倒 。但是納稅人沒有忘記2008金融海嘯的bailout 而且十年來活在 paycheck to paycheck的人一直增加，而super rich則越來越富。貧富差距在瘟疫後只會進ㄧ步拉大。美國價值美國夢的信譽加速滑落，沒有適當的政治處理，貧富對立，以及表面的民粹，藍紅對立，也會影響投資人的投資意願。建議美國政治界盡快對於兩大陳癰：醫療以及教育進行改革。這兩大支出在失業大曾的情況下會導致民眾看不起病加上付不出學貸。而所謂的貨幣QE或是個人中小企業紓困，在普羅大眾沒有消費能力的情況下收效不樂觀。

疫情下的科技趨勢

1.新常態：

work from home -> leave outside city -> less dine out, hang out. -> depreciates value of office real estate, shopping mall real estate in cities. -> cheaper rent
               
need less cars -> worsen cars demand -> cheaper cars -> new transportation culture.--> autopilot.
               
social distancing -> winter of sharing economy -> loneliness, more telecommunication, online gaming, online entertainment

traveling becomes more difficult since reduced means, but business travel could still be necessary. -> cheaper flight ticket, but bankruptcy of weaker smaller ones.

online education ->  reduced tuition and reduced teaching and learning hours  -> more free time with families thus increased need for at home entertainment.

online medication -> under developed area of business.

 未來的大公司
Square, Shopify, Amazon, Activation, Zoom, TicToc, Nintendo, Tesla, 


stock analysis技術分析

Low Ball Buying Technique.

My buying strategy is to buy low (sell high).

You can observe from the graph above that there are three main falls at May 1, May 14, and May27,which coincidentally fall on a line. It is clearly the section of the industry in on the rising phase after the plaque. By doing extrapolation of the low points we can set price to buy at any specific time point as long as the rising phase doesn't change because of some 'black swan' or ' monetary& financial polices'. In fact M&F policies are now adding fuel to the market so I expect I will only burn hotter in the next quarter.

The extrapolation is

             |May 1| May14|May27|June11|
            Interval| 11D   | 13D    |15D     |

             |212$  | 217$   | 224$  |231$   |
          Change  | 5$       | 7$      |  9$     |         
                

so the target low ball price at June 11 is 231$

Extrapolate in between for May28 is 224 + 9/15*1 = 224.6$
So I will put an order of 224.6$ limit buy offer on the market for May28.
That's how you can always buy at the lowest point on the market without reading the research report.

基本面 

In the fidelity API, you can choose the research report from the left hand side bar.

 from there, you can pick research reports from various agencies, and there is a normalized accuracy rating for each agency over the last 24 months on the industry sector StarMine Relative Accuracy. But I recommend to read most of them because they contains in depth information of the business, and you can learn how professional analyst evaluate the company's target stock price.

For example, if you want to learn more about an unfamiliar company, you can start with Zacks Investment Research -SHOP

So you can see there's basic verbal report that takes 3 minutes to read. On the left is the estimate and actual Earning per Share. The report goes on and it is highly recommended for all investors before buying any stock.

美股筆記：covid-19 病毒全國封鎖 逢低買進

美股在2/21 開始暴跌。因為美國政府終於意識到新冠病毒已經在國內蔓延，而多數人還不狀況內。疫情從郵輪爆發，但是社區感染是在華盛頓州開始。養老中心發生群聚感染，並且老人確診感染後死亡。該院醫護對於新冠病毒沒有危機意識，因為他們認為不過是另外一種流感病毒。新冠病毒的感染率遠高於流感，但是致死率遠低於2010年SARS。SARS當年重創亞洲，使得中日韓都有危機意識，因而得以防範未然。義大利，西班牙，長年公衛系統嚴重不足，此次疫情癱瘓醫院。雖然義國政府要求居家隔離，沒有想到無症狀帶原者卻把病毒在室內傳給家人。事實上，病毒在室內的濃度遠高於室外，因此大規模感染通常是大型室內集會，如夜店，地鐵，教室，教會，飛機，郵輪。一般而言病毒藉由飛沫以及接觸傳染。在高於八十歲老人的致死率高達兩成。Covid19不同於SARS，雖然致死率低，也比流感來得高，在沒有疫苗的情況下，沒有做社交隔離可能會造成大規模的中老年人死亡。

由於美國政府毫無準備，加上整體就業人口多為沒有社會保險的合約工，如共乘，外賣快遞，餐館服務生，以及大量三級產業時薪就業人口，封成導致美國大量的人失去收入。又由於美國人沒有儲蓄習慣，加上房租房貸，連帶導致大量人口申請社會救濟。美國財政紀律敗壞，量化寬鬆失靈，流動性流入社會救濟並不會刺激消費，只會造成更嚴重的通膨。但是銀行得「暫時」避免大量企業個人債務違約。不容置疑的是這次大疫暴露美國人民就業結構的問題，美國長期財政紀律的問題，以及資本主義過度仰賴非必須消費來刺激增長的問題。

股市泡沫破裂直到3/23才因為川普的兩兆美元補貼迫使流動性到股市避風。但是在實質就業問題沒獲得解決之前，整體經濟危機看不到亮光。川普必須盡快出台就業方案，同時財富分配問題會在危機過後成為下次大選的熱點。無論如何，川普的選情堪慮。拜登上台機會增加。美中貿易戰可能因為川普下台而不了了之。那受惠最多的恐怕是共產黨，因為川普落選將成為習進平繼續掌權的政治籌碼。拜登如果延續歐巴馬重返亞洲政策，而非川普美國優先政策，美國將繼續被中國製造業以及中國非自由市場綁架，而造成國家安全威脅。全球秩序在未來這幾個月可能將有大洗牌。歐盟分裂，以及美國明顯難以領導聯合國的局勢下，舊秩序無論如何無法維持。這次大疫可以說是歷史性時刻。

然而美國秩序的崩塌，將不會是突然的，而是一個緩降的過程，因為世界各國都同時面臨相同的經濟危機。中國可以利用國有化私人資產來繼續提昇國力，成為經濟霸權，但是用暴力掠奪民眾資產，干涉自由市場以及封鎖輿論這種半奴隸制導致的社會不穩定可能會導致中國財產無法轉化為消費，而是高儲蓄以及中產技術階級的向外流失。

未來一片愁雲慘霧。現金固然有流動性的優勢。20%資產配在股市，另外應該提高黃金比重到20%，剩下60%為現金。

買股：healthcare ETF 未來半年收益優於大盤指數。缺點是缺乏長期成長性（預期九月到賣點）
買股：MMM 口罩訂單，未來半年收益增加，相對抗跌。缺點是長期缺乏成長性。此外配息還算高（預期九月到賣點）  
買股: NEQZ 那斯達克ETF。科技業一向是美國經濟火車頭。成長性高。疫情時可以遠距工作，廣告收入電商收入可能因為隔離增加，疫情後反彈快速，基本上沒有受到太多生意衝擊。另外，平常這些股票超貴，此時不買更待何時。這波危機是五十年一遇的買點。大量優良資產低於實際價值。

未來半年看壞：

US stock market note 2

Invest on the company, not the stock.

So here we've come to a stage where all the statistics and technical facts explain nothing about how much trust should we endorse a company. There are highs and lows of a company, and even the best company has a life cycle. Nobody think Google or Apple or Amazon will be there forever, and for most people, the question why these companies are on the top of the pyramid of the value chain, has never pass their minds. 

'Why the fuck does that matter, Daniel ? They are there because they are Google, Amazon, and Apple. That's it.' 

That is a typical thought of most investor. They simply held a belief that these brand names themselves are the magic that make the stock price rise. They check the statistics, and do the analysis, and read some news, and say, 'Ok, I think the market shows we should buy/ sell/ hold.' , as if they are talking about the weather. Yes, they are, incredulously, treating a huge company of billions in market value, thousands of workers, and millions of customers, as a natural phenomena. They measure what is thought to be indicators- humidity, wind speed- using their cutting-edge technology - radar diagram - to forecast the weather in the stock market in the following 3 days. That's how ridiculous some professional traders that handles billions USD perceive stocks. They know nothing about how to run a company.

Enough ranting. The secret of withholding trust and belief in a good company, as if they are yours, is to observe how good are their employees. For tech companies whose product is the intellectual ideas, smart and skilled workers/managers are the very key to the destiny of the company. Only the best workers guarantee the success, others are secondary. Employees are the genes of a innovative companies. The best innovation is not how mush research budget they lay on the nest annual year, or how many research papers/ patents they published every year, but how they are able to innovate themselves. This always takes the best people to succeed, for they are not slackers in thinking, and practicing it. This gene is the seed of fire of a innovative company. However, a genuinely innovative company should be able to generate great technologies that challenge the state of the art.

There are some side indicators that 'might' be useful to infer if a company has the best employ, such as the salary, the welfare, and the most exciting atmosphere that you can find and evaluate objectively on Glassdoor or other job hunting websites. Many companies claims they possess them, but how do we get a more concrete measure of employee quality, which is a combinatory measure of skill, creativity, passion, teamwork, and entrepreneurship? Difficult, isn't it ?

I henceforth put down my final rule of employee investment: how much the company invests and trusts its employee determines the resistibility and perseverance when the company faces negativities from the market forecasters. Good companies always empowers their employees.

Forecasters can earn money because they controls the media, and controls the capitals, so they can sway the stock price in a short time. While here we are talking about the operation of a company, and how companies innovate and renovate itself continuously to avoid being outrun by the environment. We are talking about the mechanism that modulates the weather.

The difference between us, and them is analogous to the difference between geoscientists and weather forecasters. We are talking about the climate, while they are talking about weather. No matter how weather changes, climate prevails in the long run. If global warming is true, then we will see tropical habitat becomes inhabitable, while Antarctic regions start to thrive eventually. This rule of investment is superior to the weather forecast investment, since we buy in very early in very low price, years before weather forecasters start noticing the trend on their radar technologies, and making waves for them.

As for when to sell ?  I would say never, or any time. You can sell it any time since your return of investment is around 10 to 100 times. You can keep it as long as the trend persists, those who goes with the trend will keep rampage the market, just like a hurricane on the tropical pacific ocean. 

US stock market note 1

Some observations of United States stock market in the last month.

1.  Its enough to transact once a month. Transaction fee is so high that it doesn't make sense to do transaction more than once per week. The fluctuation between the period are just investing emotions and speculations. One month is already the shortest duration to draw conclusion and make prediction in the next month.   (just an empirical rule, can be falsify, especially due to technological reason, such as AI trader.)

1. You must make a transection once a month. It is not recommended just leave them their.  You should either sale those bad and bid in those good, and update your information library. Otherwise you will loose touch to the market. This is the basic of basic, just in case you are very r

2. Most traders also make transaction once a week for the same reason. It doesn't matter if you will hence miss the critical time point, since you shall profit from your long term prediction of the company, not from other trader's decision. (The huge fall or rise should have a very sane base, such as company actions or fiscal report, which should have been learned by you earlier if you are not lazy and stupid. The unpredictable rise and fall, are therefore, unpredictable to rational traders. Unpredictable unpredictables are what a good trader should avoid. What traders do is to predict unpredictables.) This kind of rise and fall are too short to capture, and again, too high the transaction fee to make it profitable.

3. Market rise slow like climbing mountains, and plunge fast like jumping from cliffs. It stems from human psychology. It is the nature of human beings to evade risks. Exploiting this is the only reason we are more probable to earn money than other 'instinct traders' who doesn't aware how emotion affects human decisions.  Practically speaking, we buy when people sell, we sale when people buy. How do you know when to buy if the stock price is falling. How do you know it is the time the stock will stop falling, and is about to rise ? 1. deceleration of the falling speed. 2. When the fear comes from the bottom of your heart, buy it. Your nature-born emotion is the best anti-indicator in stock market. It is the primary pitfall that most trader fall into.

4. Evaluate the objectives not by P/E (it is a fossil), but DIVIDEND AND EPS, the most direct number telling you how much you should expect to gain after a year. ROE decides the price of the stock. Second the growth of revenue by year. This also decides the price, but only partially. Third, the demand of the target market of the company. This decides the long term growth of the company. For example, Internet infrastructures such as cables and servers are in high demands, whilst energy production and downstream refinement, distribute and retail markets are shrinking. But there are nuances which require extensive study of the markets. 

5. Don't buy what experts or newspaper recommend you (those are almost always bullshit). Don't take action simply because of some information. Action follows your judgement. Always form judgement, and that's why you will have a better chance to profit if you start to write a blog about your judgements. You can later revisit your judgement and adjust is according to reality. 

However, do use public information to confirm/refute your portfolio selections by using their logic to challenging your logics. Besides, you can make a compare group to evaluate whether your portfolio performance is better than so called 'experts'.

6.  S&P500 is a very good benchmark to test your readiness. If your portfolio cannot outperform PURE500, you should just buy PURE500. Otherwise you are just wasting your money. 

7. Never buy any kind of trust, because those traders earn managing fees regardless their performance. They never take your money as seriously as you do. Second, You will feel disgruntled wether you earn money or lose money anyways, and you will always think you are better than them (which could be very likely true.) They Can make one VERY bad decision and ruined the whole years hard work and make you think are they idiots or not ? (rhetorical question here.)

8. Here are some observation of the market demands : First, uprising consumer market in China is huge and underdeveloped. China is a close market that protects local companies. Therefore, Chinese companies targeting consumers are likely to boom multiple times. Yirendai,  a online micro loan company in China. Its price has soared like rocket after POA. Second, the infrastructure of Internet are thriving due to the strong demand. Global Energy demand is shrinking, and has a VERY BAD prospect in the long run. US Domestic Energy companies are also suffering. (Warning, no liability of any consequence of any investments incurred.) This observation is subjective, which personal bias and preference, which breath in some fresh air to this hideous but inescapable chore.

9.  However, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even some industries are not that hyped, it doesn't mean they are not a good objective for conservative, stable, and liquid source of revenue. You just don't want to loose all your money in a financial tsunami. Balance your portfolio by all means.

 

科斯托蘭尼的投資心得

股市的波動

股市的波動與其討論各種基本面的因素，還不如歸結到供需平衡。因為股市的邏輯不同於日常生活的邏輯。你永遠無法解釋的清楚為何股市走向與日常邏輯相反。我們不必注意短期的股市走向，那是玩家的世界。

影響股市的driver

不同的因素會在不同的時間影響股市。科斯托蘭尼以他在美國以及歐洲的投資經驗整理出一些觀察：

長期（60 months）:

總體經濟、國際情勢、國內情勢、科技發展、環境資源等基本面因素，終將反應在市場上。記住要有耐心，2*2=5-1不要受一時的下跌以及回跌而錯賣。

對長期經濟發展的影響：

經融泡沫、外交衝突、產業瓶頸： 負面

國家的和平、政治的穩定、好的國家重大政策： 正面

中期 ( 7~10 months)：



貨幣＋心理(短期因素)＝趨勢。 正向貨幣因素終究會導致正向的心理因素。

匯率、貨幣政策、債券、定存利率

短期(1 month)

投資人心理因素：自信、恐慌、樂觀、悲觀

                                供需決定短期走向，股票多還是傻子多。

金流因素： 履約壓力、還款壓力


心理因素受到股市表現的影響、又回頭影響股市，短期的股市走向無法預測。

一個投機者的告白 -安德烈．科斯托蘭尼

一個投機者的告白這本書講的是股市投資大師安得列科斯托蘭尼的投資經驗談。

作者生平

  柯斯托蘭尼（1906~1999）生長於一個匈牙利的猶太家庭，幼時父親送他到親戚家學習股市投資。在巴黎的證交所學習的這段期間，他養成獨特的金錢觀以及投機觀。（當然猶太人一向都是投機的能手）他依靠自己的判斷力，在二十多歲時便已經在大恐慌的一片恐懼中從股市中大賺。
  柯斯托蘭尼擅長利用自己推論的能力，進行與大眾預期相反的操作，而多次獲利百倍。無論是在經濟大恐慌、二戰結束破敗的德國、或是東西德合併、蘇聯解體等經濟危機中，他的視野總是比其他人更遠，視野也更為宏觀。  
  在二次大戰後，父母親家中資產受到戰火破壞殆盡，所幸科斯托蘭尼的投機本領使他的父母可以在瑞士安享晚年，而也使他比當時戰後的一般人過得更好。這件事情對於科斯托蘭尼的投機致富的道德觀有很大的影響。他以身為投機者為榮。

  
什麼人適合投機？


有錢的人，可以投機                  利用多餘的錢進行投機，投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍，
                                                但是最多只能賠100%

錢少的人，不可以投機                這裡所謂有錢。不在於他有多少財產，而在資本是否完整無
                                                 缺，有沒有負債。負債投機的結果一定是不好的，投機總是
                                                 有風險，融資一但被迫提前還款，生活將受影響。此外，付          
                                                 債會影響判斷以及決策自由。

根本沒錢的人，必須投機            利用多餘的錢進行投機，投機報酬率可以是兩倍、三倍，
                                                但是最多只能賠100% 。既然生活本來是一無所有，投機是
                                                最好的致富之道。然而每次的投機之前必須深思熟慮，想出  
                                                嚴密的作戰計畫



如何投機？

觀察

有遠見的投機家密切註意各種基本因素，如金融和貸款政策、利率、經濟擴充、國際局勢、貿易收支、經營報告等，不會受到次要的日常新聞影響。同時他也觀察生活周遭的變化趨勢。他制定周密的計劃和策略，根據每天發生的事件進行調整。總而言之，投機者有想法，不管正不正確，畢竟是個想法。這是投機家和證券玩家的基本差異。

不受金融有關消息、新聞影響判斷

投機者不去尋找訊息、而是發現訊息。重要的消息，通常是隱藏在字裏行間（生活周遭）的訊息。不要重視企業消息以及財經報告，所有你可以得到的消息其他人都知道了，如此一來，股市早已反應。就算是得到內線消息，也不見得可以獲利。跟著別人買進、賣出，而不自己思考的人只是賭徒，只會淪為莊家和大賭客的祭品。

想像力比知識更重要

我們的判斷既然是基於既成事實，基本的類推大家都會，而且很容易想到。只有透過豐富的想像力才能發覺其他人尚未發現的資訊，那才是我們可以賺錢的地方。

有耐心才能進入市場

"我把「投機中賺的錢，是痛苦錢。」當成座右銘，先有痛苦，然後才有金錢。開始時出現的總是別的東西，最後才如大家所想那樣。如果投機交易中的各個要素都有效，剩下的只是時間問題，但大多數投資者都缺乏對當中發生的狂風暴雨處之泰然的耐心和毅力，他們一看到指數下跌，便立刻驚慌失措，賣掉所有股票。"

"我為證券市場列了一個獨一無二的數學公式：２×２＝５－１。我用這個公式表示，最終發生的事情都會應驗。二乘以二等於四，是最後結果。不過我們不是直接得到這個結果，而是繞了一圈。" 

運氣

股市極其複雜，沒有人可以真正知道將會發生什麼。這次的勝利不代表下次的勝利，我們要保持謙卑才能必面犯錯。檢視失敗的原因讓我們發現自己的盲點。無論勝利或是失敗，我們總會得到什麼，珍惜它，從中學習。








  

理性投資

巴菲特的投資哲學

股票的價值就是公司的價值
    巴菲特是世界上投資股市最成功的人，而他的投資方法也很簡單：股票的價值就是公司的價值。當股價低於公司的實際價值時買進，高於實際價值時賣出，就能獲得穩定的報酬。這樣的投資方法聽起來理所當然，但是實際操作時人們的決策往往受自己的情感以及市場潮流左右。在台灣，成天盯盤、殺進殺出成為股市操作的主流，而因短線操作的興盛伴隨而來的各種分析方法也充斥市面。大部分的人並不瞭解，也不曾試圖瞭解這些方法背後的理論依據以及實際成效，他們採用各種技術分析以及投資方法往往是聽信權威或是一窩蜂趕潮流或是看到一兩個成功案例就輕易採信。

任何買賣必須有清楚的理由
   巴非特的投資法主張任何股票的買賣必須有清楚的理由，而這最終都歸結到公司的真正價值上面。因為股價不論如何波動，它的穩定態必然反應公司價值。從上一段的幾種投資人常有的不理性行為我們可以發現，缺乏自信以及貪婪是影響理性決策的最大因素。因此，有人說在買股票最重要的是個人的修為，貪心的人賺不到錢，傻子才賺得到錢。但是我認為更深層的問題是大眾平常就不依賴自己的理性判斷做決策，而沒有養成理性思考的習慣。如果可以理性思考，貪婪以及恐懼根本不會存在於我們的腦海中。

短線操作的壞處

   股價短期的走向主要是因為三大法人的進出而決定。而散戶追隨股價走勢而追高賣低。緊盯股價策略能賺到的錢的極大值永遠小於法人，因為法人總是買在最低點、賣在最高點。這樣的方法事倍功半。
    雖然巴菲特很成功，也受到投資人的級大尊重，但是大多數的投資者和機構投資者的實際做法卻和巴菲特的投資理念相反。法人擁有專業知識以及豐富的資訊，對於公司的價值遠比散戶清楚。然而法人的專業經理人卻不一定可以做出正確的決策。他們會受到
1.公司方針、規範的限制
2.受到投資人要求以主流的技術操作
3.他們受到經濟學理論侷限的也可使得他們沒辦法做出最好的決策

種種因素影響之下，很少投資機構能向巴菲特的波克夏控股公司一樣，堅守理性投資。而也沒有公司能像波克夏公司一樣在投資上面有如此傲人的報酬率。

理性分析方法

理性說起來簡單，但是做起來要怎麼做呢？想必大部分的人沒有受過嚴謹的邏輯訓練。以下四個步驟說明我們如何做出理性的決策。透過思考力的訓練，我們可以反思自己的決策合理與否，只要能夠合理的做出決策，我們也能夠使用巴菲特的價值投資法。

以下的方法不僅限於分析公司價值，也可以用在我們生活中其他事物上。