個人生活
我上個月訂閱了美國的洛杉磯日報，以及紐約時報兩大報。
紐約時報為紐約第一大報，對於不看電視的我有助於了解民生民情以及熱點話題
洛杉磯時報為洛杉磯的當地大報。觀看體驗優於紐約時報，每天會寄信到信箱。
兩報對於財經專題不是相當注重 ，但是對於疫情以及國內問題報導的頗多。
剛開始還會一頁一頁看。但是看了一個月發現沒有太多驚喜，就看的快，看的少。
現在只看前幾版，後面就不看。
下個月如果沒每天看，果斷停訂。之前訂過economist其實不錯，可以考慮回訂。
最近因為自肅（quarantine）我訂閱了兩報。最近一直報導新常態，我希望不要成為常態。不然都沒地方去還不如回台灣。
疫情
這週加州宣佈開市，第二階段的餐廳，以及第三階段的髮廊都開了。終於可以剪剪兩個月沒剪的頭。
航空業復甦?
下下週六月九號要搭飛機， 阿拉斯加航空到聖荷西去住在凱家。我
樂觀判斷那時候會安全的多。因次我今天也book了西南航空LUV以及阿拉斯加航空ALK的股票。現在航空業慘淡，股票觸底，只要不倒，跌無可跌,只能漲了。LUV , ALK, 主要是這兩家結構簡單，流動資產多，就算燒錢到年底也不會倒。
巨觀的貧富問題加深
其實美國航空業接受政府的bailout美國政府就不會讓他們倒 。但是納稅人沒有忘記2008金融海嘯的bailout 而且十年來活在 paycheck to paycheck的人一直增加，而super rich則越來越富。貧富差距在瘟疫後只會進ㄧ步拉大。美國價值美國夢的信譽加速滑落，沒有適當的政治處理，貧富對立，以及表面的民粹，藍紅對立，也會影響投資人的投資意願。建議美國政治界盡快對於兩大陳癰：醫療以及教育進行改革。這兩大支出在失業大曾的情況下會導致民眾看不起病加上付不出學貸。而所謂的貨幣QE或是個人中小企業紓困，在普羅大眾沒有消費能力的情況下收效不樂觀。
疫情下的科技趨勢
1.新常態：
work from home -> leave outside city -> less dine out, hang out. -> depreciates value of office real estate, shopping mall real estate in cities. -> cheaper rent
need less cars -> worsen cars demand -> cheaper cars -> new transportation culture.--> autopilot.
social distancing -> winter of sharing economy -> loneliness, more telecommunication, online gaming, online entertainment
traveling becomes more difficult since reduced means, but business travel could still be necessary. -> cheaper flight ticket, but bankruptcy of weaker smaller ones.
online education -> reduced tuition and reduced teaching and learning hours -> more free time with families thus increased need for at home entertainment.
online medication -> under developed area of business.
未來的大公司
Square, Shopify, Amazon, Activation, Zoom, TicToc, Nintendo, Tesla,
stock analysis
技術分析
 |
| Low Ball Buying Technique. |
My buying strategy is to buy low (sell high).
You can observe from the graph above that there are three main falls at May 1, May 14, and May27,which coincidentally fall on a line. It is clearly the section of the industry in on the rising phase after the plaque. By doing extrapolation of the low points we can set price to buy at any specific time point as long as the rising phase doesn't change because of some 'black swan' or ' monetary& financial polices'. In fact M&F policies are now adding fuel to the market so I expect I will only burn hotter in the next quarter.
The extrapolation is
|May 1| May14|May27|
June11|
Interval| 11D | 13D |
15D |
|212$ | 217$ | 224$ |
231$ |
Change | 5$ | 7$ |
9$ |
so the target low ball price at June 11 is 231$
Extrapolate in between for May28 is 224 + 9/15*1 = 224.6$
So I will put an order of 224.6$ limit buy offer on the market for May28.
That's how you can always buy at the lowest point on the market without reading the research report.
基本面
In the fidelity API, you can choose the
research report from the left hand side bar.
from there, you can pick research reports from various agencies, and there is a normalized accuracy rating for each agency over the last 24 months on the industry sector
StarMine Relative Accuracy. But I recommend to read most of them because they contains in depth information of the business, and you can learn how professional analyst evaluate the company's target stock price.
For example, if you want to learn more about an unfamiliar company, you can start with Zacks Investment Research -SHOP
So you can see there's basic verbal report that takes 3 minutes to read. On the left is the estimate and actual Earning per Share. The report goes on and it is highly recommended for all investors before buying any stock.
